Developing Scenarios using the ScenarioWizard
Scenario development with the ScenarioWizard is carried out in four steps.
1. Compile a list of descriptors (relevant system elements) and the variants attributed to them as alternative futures. Both together form the analysis structure for scenario development.
2. Enter the cross-impact data into this structure. The analysis structure and the cross-impact data together form the cross-impact matrix.
3. Evaluate the cross-impact matrix by computing its consistent scenarios. One way to present the scenarios is to display them in a scenario tableau.
4. The internal logic of the scenarios can then be examined using a variety of evaluation functions. For example, an impact network diagram can be drawn for each scenario, in which the promoting and inhibiting influence relationships between the scenario elements are shown.
