Bibliography
This bibliography contains publicly available papers that either deal with the methodological aspects of CIB analysis (Section A) or report on applications of the CIB method in various fields of research (Section B). The list is based on personal communications about CIB-related publications, regular internet research, and the CIB-Lab's own publications.
A. Methodological publications
Campfens J., Duygan M., Binder C.R. (2024): Exploring Social Tipping Dynamics in Energy Transitions: A Novel Analytical Framework. SSRN. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4963249. >>
Lawrence M., Shipman M. (2024): Positive Pathways through Polycrisis. Report. Cascade Institute (Victoria, Canada). >>
Chonghao Zhao (2023): An approach to extend Cross-Impact Balance method in multiple timespans. arXiv:2308.06223. DOI: 10.48550/arXiv.2308.06223. >>
Schweizer V.J., Jamieson-Lane A.D., Cai H., Lehner S., Smerlak M. (2023): Pathways for socio-economic system transitions expressed as a Markov chain. PLoS ONE 18(7):e0288928. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288928. >>
Weimer-Jehle W. (2023): Cross-Impact Balances (CIB) for Scenario Analysis - Fundamentals and Implementation. Springer Berlin, Heidelberg, New-York. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-27230-1. >>
Lazurko A. (2023): Complexity, ambiguity, and the boundaries of the future - Toward a reflexive scenario practice in sustainability science. Dissertation. Universität Waterloo. >>
Kurniawan J.H., Apergi M., Eicke L., Goldthau A., Lazurko A., Nordemann E., Schuch E., Sharma A., Siddhantakar N., Veit K., Weko S. (2022): Towards participatory cross-impact balance analysis: Leveraging morphological analysis for data collection in energy transition scenario workshops. Energy Research & Social Science 93, 102815. DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2022.102815. >>
Stankov I., Useche A.F., Meisel J.D., Montes F., Morais L.MO., Friche A.AL., Langellier B.A., Hovmand P., Sarmiento O.L., Hammond R.A., Diez Roux A.V. (2021): Using cause-effect graphs to elicit expert knowledge for cross-impact balance analysis. MethodsX. DOI: 10.1016/j.mex.2021.101492. >>
Prehofer S., Kosow H., Naegler T., Pregger T., Vögele S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2021): Linking qualitative scenarios with quantitative energy models. Knowledge integration in different methodological designs. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 11:25. DOI: 10.1186/s13705-021-00298-1. >>
Schweizer V., Lazurko A. (2020): Cross-impact Balances: A Method for Bridging Social Systems and Cybernetics. 2020 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC). Toronto, ON, 11.10.2020 - 14.10.2020: IEEE, S. 4486–4492. DOI: 10.1109/SMC42975.2020.9283480. >>
Kurniawan J.H. (2020): Assessing Consistency of Scenarios Across Scales. Developing globally linked internally consistent scenarios under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework. Dissertation, University of Waterloo, Kanada. >>
Schmidt-Scheele R. (2020): The Plausibility of Future Scenarios. Conceptualising an Unexplored Criterion in Scenario Planning. Transcript Independent Academic Publishing, Bielefeld >>. See also: Scheele R. (2019): Applause for Scenarios!? An Explorative Study of ‘Plausibility’ as Assessment Criterion in Scenario Planning. Dissertation, University of Stuttgart.
Weimer-Jehle W., Vögele S., Hauser W., Kosow H., Poganietz W.-R., Prehofer S. (2020): Socio-technical energy scenarios: state-of-the-art and CIB-based approaches. Climatic Change, 162(4), 1723-41. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02680-y >>
Vögele S., Poganietz W.-R., Mayer P. (2019): How to deal with non-linear pathways towards energy futures. Concept and application of the cross-impact balance analysis. TATuP 29(3). doi.org/10.14512/tatup.28.3.20 >>
Havránek M. (2019): A Method for Constructing Context Scenarios for the Environment (in Czech). CENIA Czech Environmental Information Agency. >>
Kemp-Benedict E., Carlsen H., Karthaa S. (2019): Large-scale scenarios as ‘boundary conditions’: A cross-impact balance simulated annealing (CIBSA) approach. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 143, 55-63. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.03.006. >>
Schweizer V., Scheele R., Kosow H. (2018): Practical poststructuralism for confronting wicked problems. 9th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. Fort Collins, Juni 2018. >>
Kunz P. (2018): Discussion of methodological extensions for Cross-Impact-Balance studies. STE preprint 01/2018, Forschungszentrum Jülich.
Scheele R., Kearney N.M., Kurniawan J.H., Schweizer V.J. (2018): What Scenarios Are You Missing? Poststructuralism for Deconstructing and Reconstructing Organizational Futures. In: Krämer H., Wenzel M.: How Organizations Manage the Future - Theoretical Perspectives and Empirical Insights. Springer International Publishing, chapter 8. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-74506-0_8 >>
Govorukha K., Kunz P., Mayer P. (2018): Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process to facilitate implementation of the Cross-Impact Balance approach. 15th Symposium on Energy Innovation, February 14-16, 2018, Graz. >>
Biß K., Ernst A., Gillessen B., Gotzens F., Heinrichs H., Kunz P., Schumann D., Shamon H., Többen J., Vögele S., Hake J.-F. (2017): Multimethod Design for Generating Qualitative Energy Scenarios. STE Preprint 25/2017, Research Center Jülich. See also: Ernst A., Biß K., Shamon H., Schumann D., Heinrichs H. (2018): Benefits and challenges of participatory methods in qualitative energy scenario development. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 127, 245-257. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.09.026. >>
Scheele R., Kosow H., Prehofer S. (2017): Context scenarios - a complement to model-based scenario analysis. Foundations and current issues [in German]. In: Tilebein, M. et al. (eds.) Digitale Welten: Neue Ansätze in der Wirtschafts- und Sozialkybernetik. Wirtschaftskybernetik und Systemanalyse Vol. 30, Berlin: Duncker & Humblot, 107-121. >>
Shojachaikar A. (2017): Beyond consistency: An alternative technique to investigate inconsistent CIB scenarios. In: Saarimaa R., Wilenius M. (eds.): Futures of a complex world. Conference proceedings, 12.-13. June 2017, Turku, Finnland. Finland Futures Research Center FFRC eBook 2/2018.
Weimer-Jehle W., Kosow H. (2017): Consistency of societal framework assumptions - CIB experiences [in German]. In: Biemann K., Distelkamp M., Dittrich M., Dünnebeil F., Greiner B., Hirschnitz-Garbers M., Koca D., Kosow H., Lorenz U., Mellwig P., Neumann K., Meyer M., Schoer K., Sverdrup H., von Oehsen A., Weimer-Jehle W.: Sicherung der Konsistenz und Harmonisierung von Annahmen bei der kombinierten Modellierung von Ressourceninanspruchnahme und Treibhausgasemissionen. Umweltbundesamt Dokumentationen 04/2017, Dessau, p. 22-28. >>
Kosow H. (2016): The best of both worlds? An exploratory study on forms and effects of new qualitative-quantitative scenario methodologies. Dissertation, Universität Stuttgart. >>
Weimer-Jehle W., Buchgeister J., Hauser W., Kosow H., Naegler T., Poganietz W., Pregger T., Prehofer S., von Recklinghausen A., Schippl J., Voegele S. (2016): Context scenarios and their usage for the construction of socio-technical energy scenarios. Energy 111, 956–970. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.073. >>
Schweizer V.J., Kurniawan J.H. (2016): Systematically linking qualitative elements of scenarios across levels, scales, and sectors. Environmental Modelling & Software, 79 (Mai 2016), 322-333, DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.014. >>
Kosow, H. (2015): New outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios. Eur J Futures Res 3:16, DOI 10.1007/s40309-015-0077-6. >>
Weimer-Jehle, W. (2015): Cross-Impact Analyse [Cross-Impact Analysis, in German]. In: Niederberger, M./Wassermann, S. (eds.): Methoden der Experten- und Stakeholdereinbindung in der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung [Methods of expert and stakeholder inclusion in social science research], Wiesbaden: VS-Verlag: 17-34.
Lloyd E.A., Schweizer V.J. (2014): Objectivity and a comparison of methodological scenario approaches for climate change research. Synthese, Vol. 191(10), 2049-2088. >>
Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Vögele S. (2013): Kontextszenarien - Ein Konzept zur Behandlung von Kontextunsicherheit und Kontextkomplexität bei der Entwicklung von Energieszenarien [Context scenarios - a concept for addressing context uncertainty and context complexity in energy scenarios, in German]. TATuP 22(2), 27–36 >>
Kemp-Benedict E. (2012): Telling better stories - Strengthening the story in story and simulation. Environ. Res. Lett. 7 041004 >>
Kosow, H. (2011): Consistent context scenarios: a new approach to ‘story and simulation’. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), Seville (Spain), 12.-13.05. 2011 >>
Weimer-Jehle W., Kosow H. (2011): Gesellschaftliche Kontextszenarien als Ausgangspunkt für modellgestützte Energieszenarien [Social Context Scenarios as a Starting Point for Model-Based Energy Scenarios, in German]. In: Dieckhoff C. et al. (Eds.): Energieszenarien - Konstruktion, Bewertung und Wirkung. KIT Scientific Publishing, Karlsruhe >>
Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): Properties of Cross-Impact Balance Analysis. arXiv:0912.5352v1 [physics.soc-ph]. >>
Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): Szenarienentwicklung mit der Cross-Impact-Bilanzanalyse [Generating Scenarios Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, in German]. In: Gausemeier J. (Ed.): Vorausschau und Technologieplanung. HNI-Verlagsschriftenreihe Vol. 265, Paderborn, 435-454.
Weimer-Jehle W. (2008): Cross-Impact Balances - Applying pair interaction systems and multi-value Kauffman nets to multidisciplinary systems analysis. Physica A, 387:14, 3689-3700. >>
Weimer-Jehle W. (2006): Cross-Impact Balances: A System-Theoretical Approach to Cross-Impact Analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 73:4, 334-361. >>
B. Reported CIB applications
in the fields of behaviour, bioeconomy and biotechnology, climate change, economy, education, energy, finance, health, information technologies, innovation, management, mobility/transport, politics, risk/security, society, sustainability and resources, technology management, urban/regional planning/architecture, waste, water, and working world.
Behaviour
Lambe F., Carlsen H., Jürisoo M., Weitz N., Atteridge A., Wanjiru H., Vulturius G. (2018): Understanding multi-level drivers of behaviour change - A Cross-impact Balance analysis of what influences the adoption of improved cookstoves in Kenya. SEI working paper. Stockholm Environment Institute. >>
Bioeconomy and biotechnology
Abitabile C., Arzeni A., Cisilino F., Orlando M. (2024): Building sustainable futures - The bio-based fertilizer case-study. Bio-Based and Applied Economics. DOI: 10.36253/bae-15786. >>
Gröne S. (2020): Ein systemdynamischer Ansatz zur Bewertung des ökonomischen Potentials von Saccharose als Rohstoff für die chemische Industrie. Dissertation, Universität Ulm. DOI: 10.18725/OPARU-34600. >>
Schneider M., Gill B. (2016): Biotechnology versus agroecology - Entrenchments and surprise at a 2030 forecast scenario workshop. Science and Public Policy, 43, 74-84. DOI:10.1093/scipol/scv021 >>
Climate change
Schuch E., Apergi M., Chow Yik Kuen D., Eicke L., Goldthau A., Kurniawan J.H., Lima-de-Oliveira R., Tan Z.G., Weko S. (2024): Breaking the carbon lock-in: Identifying pathways for Malaysia towards a low-carbon future. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 202, 123331. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123331. >>.
Mousavi M.N., Ghalehteimouri K.J., Hekmatnia H., Bagheri‑Kashkouli A., Kahaki F.S. (2023): Evaluating sector‑based impact of environmental indicators on Iran GHGs emission - A scenario developing approach. Environment, Development and Sustainability. DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02805-6. >>
Hermann J., Apergi M., Eicke L., Goldthau A., Kurniawan J., Lima-de-Oliveira R., Schuch E., Weko S. (2022): Unlocking a Low-Carbon Future for Malaysia. IASS Policy Brief, Potsdam, DOI: 10.48481/iass.2022.041. >>
Lazurko A., Kearney N., Siddhantakar N., Kurniawan J.H., Schweizer V. (2022): Weaknesses in Corporate Commitments to Climate Change Adaptation and How to Fix Them: A Systemic Scenario Assessment Approach. In: Walker T., Wendt S., Goubran S., Schwartz T. (eds.): Business and Policy Solutions to Climate Change. Cham: Springer International Publishing (Palgrave Studies in Sustainable Business In Association with Future Earth), 115–137. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-86803-1_6. >>
Boostani P., Sadeghiha M. (2022): Identification of critical uncertainties in Tehran in order to achieve the development of low carbon city by using scenario writing method. Cleaner Engineering and Technology, 6, 100405. DOI: 10.1016/j.clet.2022.100405. >>
Schweizer V.J. (2020): Reflections on cross-impact balances, a systematic method constructing global socio-technical scenarios for climate change research. Climatic Change, 162, 1705–1722. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02615-2. >>
Drakes C., Cashman A., Kemp-Benedict E., Laing T. (2020): Global to small island; a cross-scale foresight scenario exercise. Foresight 22(5/6), 579–598. DOI: 10.1108/FS-02-2020-0012. >>
See also: Drakes C., Laing T., Kemp-Benedict E., Cashman A. (2017): Caribbean Scenarios 2050 - CoLoCarSce Report. CERMES Technical Report No. 82. >>
Schweizer V.J. (2019): Scenarios and Decision Support for Security and Conflict Risks in the Context of Climate Change. Current Climate Change Report, 5, 12-23. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00123-0 >>
Haraguchi M., Liu R., Randhawa J., Salz S., Schäfer S., Sharma M., Shifflett S.C., Suzuki A., Yuan Y. (2015): Human Intervention in the Earth's Climate - The Governance of Geoengineering in 2025+. Global Governance Futures. >>
Ruth M., Özgüna O., Wachsmuth J., Gößling-Reisemann S. (2015): Dynamics of energy transitions under changing socioeconomic, technological and climate conditions in Northwest Germany. Ecological Economics 111, 29–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.12.025 >>
Wachsmuth, J. (2015): Cross-sectoral integration in regional adaptation to climate change via participatory scenario development. Climatic Change 132, 387–400. DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1231-z >>
See also: Wachsmuth, J. (2013): Developing three scenarios about possible framework conditions for Bremen-Oldenburg metropolitan region in Northwest Germany in the year 2050 [in German]. Report no. 22 of the Nordwest2050 project.
Schweizer V.J., O’Neill B.C. (2014) Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations. Climatic Change 122, 431–445 >>
Schweizer V.J., Bee B. (2013): Nested scenario meta-analyses to systematically address individual and societal consequences of climate change. Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects. Potsdam, May 27-30, 2013. >>
Schweizer V.J., Kriegler E. (2012): Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios. Environ. Res. Lett. 7 >>
Schweizer, V.J. (2010): Developing Useful Long-Term Energy Projections in the Face of Climate Change. Dissertation. Center for Climate and Energy Decision-Making. Carnegie Mellon University Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Pittsburgh, PA.
Economy
Nekooeezadeh M., Kaveh K., Alimohammadloo M., Khodadadi M. (2024): Internet of Things (Iot) Implementation in Smart Tourism - A Futures Study Approach. SSRN. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4974329. >>
Karbassi Yazdi A., Jamini D., Komasi H., Coluccio G. (2024): An Analysis of Key Factors Driving Food Tourism Development - A Scenario-Based Approach in the Rural Areas of Iran. Preprints.org. DOI: 10.20944/preprints202408.2258.v1. >>
Esmaeilzadeh Shahri M., Azari M., Ramezani Y. (2024): Drivers, Uncertainties, and Scenarios of the Iranian Economic System. International Journal of Management, Accounting and Economics 11(6). DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.12600687. >>
Mousavi M.N., Ghalehteimouri K.J., Sotoudeh N.Z., Fahliani M.R.A. (2023): Identify Appropriate Variables through Scenario Planning Perspective for Creative Tourism in Iran. Studia UBB Geographia, 68, 2, 5-35. DOI: 10.24193/subbgeogr.2023.2.01. >>
Behmanesh A., Khakzand M., Kasmaei H.K. (2023): Analyzing the Optimal Pattern of the Spatial Syntax of the Access Network in Exhibition Stands Based on a Futurology Approach. Bagh-e Nazar - Theoretical Studies of Art and Architecture, 20(124). DOI: 10.22034/BAGH.2023.367812.5281. >>
Nematpour M., Khodadadi M., Makian S., Ghaffari M. (2023): Future scenarios for improving Iran's overall destination image and attractiveness - A supply‐side perspective. Futures & Foresight Science, 5(1). DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.143. >>
Nazari R., Sohrabi Z., Moharamzadeh M. (2022): The Future Strategy of the Professional Sports Clubs (Case Study Sepahan Club). Sports Business Journal 2(1). DOI: 10.22051/sbj.2022.40189.1029. >>
Kaveh K., Nekooeezadeh M., Alimohammadlou M. (2022): IoT implementation in smart tourism. A future study approach. Research Square. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2341360/v1. >>
Nematpour M., Makian S., Rostami A., Faraji A. (2022): Agritourism as a multiplier factor for the development of Iran's rural communities: a mixed-method model to present consistent scenarios. Tourism Recreation Research. DOI: 10.1080/02508281.2022.2053935. >>
Amiruddin S., Normelani E., Budhi S. (2022): The Central Government's Role in Cultural Sustainability and Developing Tourism to Support Rural Economies: A Systematic Analysis. Journal of Ethnic and Cultural Studies 9(2), 151-170. DOI: 10.29333/ejecs/1164. >>
Nematpour M., Khodadadi M., Rezaei N. (2021): Systematic analysis of development in Iran’s tourism market in the form of future study: A new method of strategic planning. Futures 125. DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102650. >>
Komasi H., Zolfani S.H., Cavallaro F. (2022): The COVID-19 Pandemic and Nature-Based Tourism, Scenario Planning Approach (Case Study of Nature-Based Tourism in Iran). Sustainability 14, 3954. DOI: 10.3390/su14073954. >>
Haghighat S., Saberi A., Bagheri G., Khaksari G. (2022): The Future Study of Sports Tourism in Iran - Using Scenario Wizard and COPRAS. Sports Business Journal 2(2), 269-285. DOI: 10.22051/SBJ.2023.42084.1059. >>
Getto J. (2021): Analysis and Evaluation of the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Value Creation in the Supply Chain. Dissertation. University of Gloucestershire. DOI: 10.46289/KC89IT37. >>
Nematpour M., Khodadadi M., Rezaei N. (2021): Systematic analysis of development in Iran’s tourism market in the form of future study: A new method of strategic planning. Futures 125. DOI 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102650. >>
Sardesai S., Stute M., Kamphues J. (2021): A Methodology for Future Scenario Planning. In: Fornasiero R., Sardesai S., Barros A.C., Matopoulos A. (eds) Next Generation Supply Chains. Lecture Notes in Management and Industrial Engineering. Springer, Cham. DOI 10.1007/978-3-030-63505-3_2. >>
See also: Sardesai S., Kamphues J., Parlings M. et al. (2018): Next generation technologies for networked Europe - Report on future scenarios generation. EU-programme Mapping the path to future supply chains, NEXT-NET project report D2.2. >>
Stießel S. (2020): Development of a reference model for the multi-criteria evaluation of cross-industrial systems [in German]. Dissertation, Ruhr-University, Bochum. DOI: 10.13154/294-7706. >>
See also: Stießel S., Berger A., Fernández Sanchis E.M., Ziegmann M. (2018): Methodology for the Evaluation of CO2-Based Syntheses by Coupling Steel Industry with Chemical Industry. Chemie Ingenieur Technik, 90(10). DOI: 10.1002/cite.201800030.
Darabi M., Keshtidar M., Alizaei-Yousef-Abadi O., Heydari R., Nazari-Torshizi A. (2020): Scenario Planning of the Future of Sports Tourism Industry in Mashhad. Ann Appl Sport Sci 8(4). DOI: 10.29252/aassjournal.788. >>
Schneider B., Kayser M., Gelec E., Hirsch-Kreinsen H. (2020): The master craftsman in industry 4.0 factories [in German]. In: Knothe T., Gering P., Rimmelspacher S., Maier M. (Hrsg.) Die Digitalisierungshürde lässt sich Meister(n). Springer Vieweg, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-60367-3_3. >>
Saeidpour S., Sefidi A., Tizro A., Kahnali R.A. (2020): Developing Tourism Section Strategies based on Scenario Planning Approach (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Tourism Planning and Development, 9(33), 191-207. DOI 10.22080/jtpd.2020.16538.3059. >>
Sardesai S., Kippenberger J., Stute M. (2019): Whitepaper Scenario Planning for the Generation of Future Supply Chains. Fraunhofer IML, Dortmund. DOI: 10.24406/iml-n-566073. >>
Vögele S., Rübbelke D., Govorukha K., Grajewski M. (2019): Socio-technical scenarios for energy-intensive industries: the future of steel production in Germany. Climatic Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02366-0. >>
Taghvaei M., Hosseinekhah H. (2018): Tourism Development Planning Based on Future Studies and Scenario Case Study: Yasouj (in Persian, abstract in English). Tourism Planning and Development, 6, 8-30. DOI 10.22080/jtpd.2018.1762. >>
Mousavi M., Jalalian I., Sadat F. (2018): Developing Scenarios of the Factors Affecting the Development of Tourism in West Azerbaijan Province Using the Scenario Wizard (in Persian, abstract in English). Urban Tourism Quaterly 4(3), 49-62. DOI 10.22059/jut.2018.229271.292. >>
Shirvani N.M., Bayat R. (2018): Developing Strategic Options for Policy Making in the Iranian Oil Industry based on Strategic Foresight (in Persian, abstract in English). Public Policy, 4, 63-79. DOI: 10.22059/ppolicy.2018.66849. >>
Pishe S.R., Tizroo A. (2016): Strategies of Customs and Logistics to Clients through Scenario Planning Approach (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Industrial Management Perspective, 6(3), 101-129. >>
Education
Chamani F. (2023): Alternative futures of English language education in Iran in the era of globalization. Linguistics and Education 73, 101146. DOI: 10.1016/j.linged.2023.101146. >>
Moradi S., Omran E.S., Izadi S., Ghahrani N. (2020): Quantitative development scenario planning of health professional education in Iran: A mixed-method study. Research and Development in Medical Education, 9, 23. >>
Omran E.S., Izadi S., Moradi S. Ghahrani N. (2019): Qualitative development scenario planning for medical sciences education in Iran. Research and Development in Medical Education, 8(2). DOI: 10.15171/rdme.2019.019. >>
Yaghoobi N., Dehghani M., Omidvar M. (2018): Foresight of Entrepreneurial University Using the Integrated Method of Processing Scenarios and Crossimpact Analysis (in Persian, abstract in English). Productivity Management 11, 45–74. >>
Mphahlele M.I. (2012): Interactive Scenario Analysis Technique for Forecasting E-Skills Development. Dissertation. Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria (South Africa). >>
Vergara-Schmalbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Morelos Gómez J. (2012): Aplicación de la Planeación por Escenarios en Unidades Académicas: Caso Programa de Administración Industrial [Application of scenario planning in academic units: Industrial Management Program Case, in Spanish]. Escenarios 10(1), 40-48. >>
Energy
Apergi M., Eicke L., Goldthau A., Kurniawan J., Schuch E., Weko S. (2024): Pathways to a sustainable electricity sector in Kenya - Challenges and transformational factors. Utilities Policy 91, 101854. DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101854. >>
Püttner A., Liebhart L., Wolf P., Jaschek C., León C.D., Wassermann S., Wegner N., Klug K., Otto J. (2024): Development and adaptation of instruments for conflict management in the context of the energy transition [in German]. SyKonaS Report no. 4, University of Stuttgart. DOI: 10.18419/opus-14085. >>
Sadlowski M., Eon Lim C. (2024): Scenario Development for Evaluating Carbon Capture and Utilization Concepts Using Steel Mill Exhaust Gases with Linear Optimization Models. Energies, 17, 496. DOI: 10.3390/en17020496. >>. See also: Sadlowski M., Eon Lim C. (2023): Multi-criteria Scenario Development for Linear Optimization Models Utilizing Carbon-Containing Exhaust Gases. Proceedings of the 36th International Conference on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact of Energy Systems (ECOS 2023), June 25-30, 2023, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria. >>
Eicke L., Apergi M., Goldthau A., Kurniawan J., Schuch E., Weko S. (2023): Resource exporter or R&D champion? Leverage points and transition pathways for the Chilean energy sector. Energy for Sustainable Development 76, 10125, DOI: 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101257. >>
Mier M., Siala K., Govorukha K., Mayer P. (2023): Collaboration, decarbonization, and distributional effects. Applied Energy 341, 121050. DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.121050. >>. See also: Mier M., Siala K., Govorukha K., Mayer P. (2020): Costs and Benefits of Political and Physical Collaboration in the European Power Market. ifo Working Papers 343/2020. >>
Hafezi R., Heirani H., Akbari M., Mortezaee A., Bagherimoghaddam N., Heydari H., Souhankar A. (2023): Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040. A participatory scenario method. Foresight. DOI: 10.1108/FS-11-2021-0228. >>
François D.E. (2022): Future Perspectives on the Energy-Poverty Nexus in the Rural Areas of Ceará, Brazil. Dissertation. Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT). DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000152902. >>
Guminski A.P.W. (2022): CO2 Abatement in the European Industry Sector - Evaluation of Scenario-Based Transformation Pathways and Technical Abatement Measures. Dissertation. Technische Universität München, TUM School of Engineering and Design, Munich. >>
Berger A. (2022): Development of a scenario-based, techno-economic assessment methodology for the integration of power-to-X technologies into existing energy and process systems [in German]. Dissertation. Ruhr-Universität Bochum. DOI: 10.13154/294-9352. >>
Norouzi N. (2022): Socio-economic Nexus Investigation on the Future of the Iranian Gas Industry. Majlesi Journal of Energy Management, 11(2), 7-22. >>
Garcia-Teruel A., Scholz Y., Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Cao K.K., Borggrefe F. (2022): Teaching Power-Sector Models Social and Political Awareness. Energies 15, 3275. DOI: 10.3390/en15093275. >>
Broska L.H., Vögele S., Shamon H., Wittenberg I. (2022): On the Future(s) of Energy Communities in the German Energy Transition - A Derivation of Transformation Pathways. Sustainability, 14, 3169. DOI: 10.3390/su14063169. >>
Vögele S., Poganietz W.-R., Kleinebrahm M., Weimer-Jehle W., Bernhard J., Kuckshinrichs, W., Weiss A. (2022): Dissemination of PV-Battery Systems in the German Residential Sector Up to 2050: Technological Diffusion from Multidisciplinary Perspectives. Energy, 248, 123477. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.123477. >>
Witt T., Klumpp M. (2021): Multi-Period Multi-Criteria Decision Making under Uncertainty: A Renewable Energy Transition Case from Germany. Sustainability, 13, 6300. DOI: 10.3390/su13116300. >>
Oviedo-Toral L.-P., François D.E., Poganietz W.-R. (2021): Challenges for Energy Transition in Poverty-Ridden Regions — The Case of Rural Mixteca, Mexico. Energies, 14, 2596. DOI 10.3390/en14092596. >>
Weiss A., Poganietz W.R., Poncette D. (2021): A Scenario-Based Analysis of the Socio-Technical Frameworks for Energy Technologies: The Case of Synthetic Natural Gas. Journal of Future Studies. >>
Knezovic K., Berggren B. (2021): Power system evolution scenarios for long-term technology assessment. Proceedings of the 2021 IEEE Power & Energy Society Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference (ISGT). DOI: 10.1109/ISGT49243.2021.9372212. >>
Poganietz W.R., François D.E. (2021): Relevance of socio-technical developments in extreme scenarios. Final report (in German). Project eXtremOS – The value of flexibility in the context of European electricity market coupling in the face of extreme technological, regulatory, and societal developments. Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS). Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe. See also: Guminski A., Fiedler C., Kigle S. et al. (2021): eXtremOS Summary Report - Modeling Kit and Scenarios for Pathways Towards a Climate Neutral Europe. Forschungsstelle für Energiewirtschaft (FfE), Munich. >>. See also: Kigle S., Ebner M., Guminski A. (2022): Greenhouse Gas Abatement in EUROPE — A Scenario-Based, Bottom-Up Analysis Showing the Effect of Deep Emission Mitigation on the European Energy System. Energies 15, 1334. DOI: 10.3390/en15041334. >>.
Nikabadi M.S., Osmavandani E.G., Farahani K.D., Hatami A. (2021): Future Analysis to Define Guidelines for Wind Energy Production in Iran using Scenario Planning. Environmental Energy and Economic Research, 5(1), 1-22. DOI 10.22097/eeer.2020.237851.1161. >>
Kopfmüller J., Weimer‐Jehle W., Naegler T., Buchgeister J., Bräutigam K.-R., Stelzer V. (2021): Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition. Energies, 14, 1580. DOI: 10.3390/en14061580. >>
Broll R., Blumberg G., Weber C. (2020): Constructing Consistent Energy Scenarios using Cross Impact Matrices. House of Energy Markets & Finance, University of Duisburg-Essen. HEMF Working Paper No. 05/2020. >>
Norouzi N., Fani M. (2020): The Seventh Line. A Scenario Planning Strategic Framework for Iranian 7th Energy Progress Plan by 2020-2025. Journal of Energy Management and Technology. DOI: 10.22109/jemt.2020.234795.1243. >>
Poganietz W.-R., Weimer-Jehle W. (2020): Introduction to the special issue ‘Integrated scenario building in energy transition research’. Climatic Change, 162(4), 1699-1704. DOI:10.1007/s10584-020-02871-7. >>
Marzban E., Mohammadi M. (2020): From Solid Government to Self-Governance: Future Scenarios for Electricity Distribution in Iran. Journal of Futures Studies, 24(3), 17–35. DOI: 10.6531/JFS.202003_24(3).0002. See also: Marzban E., Mohammadi M., Pourezzat A. (2018): Governance in the Field of Energy Distribution in Iran - Foresighting and Developing Policy Options (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Public Policy (University of Teheran), 4, 9-26. DOI: 10.22059/ppolicy.2018.68239. >>
Senkpiel C., Hauser W. (2020): Systemic Evaluation of the Effects of Regional Self-Supply Targets on the German Electricity System Using Consistent Scenarios and System Optimization. Energies, 13. DOI:10.3390/en13184695. >>
See also: Senkpiel C., Hauser W., Biener W., Längle S., Shammugam S., Garcia K.R., Kost C. (2019): AutGrid - Opportunities and risks of network autarky in Germany. Model-based analysis and evaluation of the effects of grid autarky of regions in the German energy system (in German). Report. Fraunhofer ISE, Freiburg. >>
Norouzi N., Fani M., Ziarani Z.K. (2020): The fall of oil age: A scenario planning approach over the last peak oil of human history by 2040. Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, 188. doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2019.106827. >>
Pregger T., Naegler T., Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Hauser W. (2020): Moving towards socio-technical scenarios of the German energy transition - lessons learned from integrated energy scenario building. Climatic Change 162, 1743–1762. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02598-0. >>
Mottaghi M. (2019): Futures of Iran’s Oil and Gas Scenarios by 2035. Petroleum Business Review, 3(4), 63-86. DOI: 10.22050/pbr.2019.119195. >>. See also: Norouzi N. (2019): The Iran of the next two decades - A scenario planning approach over the Iranian gas and oil industries by 2035. Majlesi Journal of Energy Management, 8, 27-40. >>
Dewald U., Grunwald A., Poganietz W.-R., Schippl J. (2019): The energy transition as a socio-technical transformation - from analysis to organization (in German). In: Radtke J., Canzler W. (eds.): Energiewende. Eine sozialwissenschaftliche Einführung. Springer Fachmedien, Wiesbaden, 319–352. >>
Göllinger T., Knauf J, (2019): Scenario analysis of a sectoral coupled municipal energy supply (in German). Institut für ökologische Betriebswirtschaft. Working paper no. 70, Siegen. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28548.68483. >>
Schmidt-Scheele R., Bauknecht D., Poganietz W.-R., Seebach D., Timpe C., Weimer-Jehle W., Weiss A. (2019): Guiding motifs and storylines of the energy transition. How stakeholder positions can be systematically integrated into transition pathways (in German). TATuP 29(3). doi.org/10.14512/tatup.28.3.27 >>
Görres J., Hahn R., Schrade J., Erhorn H., Friedrich M., Schmaus M., Magg C., Marathe S.D., Alcántara S., Sonnberger M., Wassermann S., Jüdes M., Beck R. (2018): Energy efficient city - SEE Stuttgart (in German). Report to the German Ministry for Education and Research, Stuttgart. >>
Venjakob J., Schüwer D., Schneider C., Gröne M.-C. (2018): Cross-impact analyses for the transformation of urban energy infrastructures using the example of CHP and hydrogen [in German]. Results of the sub-project "Transformation and interconnection of urban energy infrastructures" in the project "Energiewende Ruhr". Wuppertal Report no. 15. >>. See also: Venjakob J., Schüver D., Gröne M.-C. (2017): Guideline sustainable energy infrastructures - Subproject transformation and interlinkage of infrastructures [in German]. Project report "Energy Transition Ruhr", Wuppertal Institute. >>
Kunz P., Vögele S. (2017): Cross-Impact Balance as an Approach for the Development of Consistent Storylines for the European Energy Market. 14th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), June 6-9, 2017. >>
Brodecki L., Fahl U., Tomascheck J., Wiesmeth M., Gutekunst F., Siebenlist A., Salah A., Baumann M., Brethauer L., Horn R., Hauser W., Sonnberger M., León C., Pfenning U., O'Sullivan M. (2017): Using integrated energy systems modelling for analysing the potentials of energy autarky in Baden-Württemberg [in German]. Research report to the BWPLUS Programme of the Federal State of Baden-Württemberg. >>
Pruditsch N., Zöphel C. (2017): Scenarios for an European energy system - Challenges in the interdisciplinary development of consistent scenarios for international systems [in German]. UmweltWirtschaftsForum (uwf). DOI: 10.1007/s00550-017-0443-x. >>
Schmid E., Pechan A., Mehnert M., Eisenack, K. (2017): Imagine all these futures: On heterogeneous preferences and mental models in the German energy transition. Energy Research & Social Science 27, 45-56, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2017.02.012. >>
Regett A., Zeiselmair A., Wachinger K., Heller C. (2017): Merit order power grid expansion 2030. Part 1: Scenario analysis - possible future framework conditions for power grid expansion [in German]. Report, Research Center for Energy Economics (FfE). >>
Weimer-Jehle W., Prehofer S., Vögele S., Buchgeister J., Hauser W., Kopfmüller J., Naegler T., Poganietz W.-R., Pregger T., Rösch C., Scholz Y. (2017): Context scenarios - A concept for coping with context uncertainty and complexity and its applications in the Helmholtz Research Alliance ENERGY-TRANS [in German]. In: Jens Schippl, Armin Grunwald, Ortwin Renn (Eds.). Die Energiewende verstehen – orientieren – gestalten. Erkenntnisse aus der Helmholtz-Allianz ENERGY-TRANS. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, Baden-Baden, p. 257-94.
Vögele S., Hansen P., Poganietz W.-R., Prehofer S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2017): Scenarios for energy consumption of private households in Germany using a multi-level cross-impact balance approach. Energy 120, 937-946. DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.12.001. >>
Shojachaikar A. (2016): Qualitative but systematic envisioning of socio-technical transitions: Using cross-impact balance method to construct future scenarios of transitions. International Sustainability Transitions Conference 6-9 September 2016, Wuppertal. >>
Senkpiel C., Shammugam S., Biener W., Saad Hussein N., Kost C., Kreifels N., Hauser W. (2016): Concept of evaluating chances and risks of grid autarky. 13th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), June 6-9, 2016, Porto (Portugal). DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2016.7521177. >>
Mansson A. (2016): Energy security in a decarbonised transport sector: A scenario based analysis of Sweden's transport strategies. Energy Strategy Reviews 13-14, 236-47. DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2016.06.004. >>
Vögele S., Hansen P., Kuckshinrichs W., Schürmann K., Schenk O., Pesch T., Heinrichs H., Markewitz P. (2013): Konsistente Zukunftsbilder im Rahmen von Energieszenarien [Consistent images of the future within energy scenarios, in German]. Research Center Jülich, STE Research Report 3/2013. >>
Buchgeister J., Rieder A., Weimer-Jehle W. (2013): Using cross-impact analysis as a part of scenario technique for long-term trends of energy systems. Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on Energy Systems on Efficiency, Cost, Optimization, Simulation and Environmental Impact (ECOS), Guilin, China, July 15-19, 2013. >>
Cheng H., Ferguson I., Guan T., Johnson T., Ma Y., Mao Z., Pence E., Wigand F. (2013): Energy governance outlook: Global scenarios and implications. Global Governance Futures. >>
Jenssen T., Weimer-Jehle W. (2012): Mehr als die Summe der einzelnen Teile - Konsistente Szenarien des Wärmekonsums als Reflexionsrahmen für Politik und Wissenschaft [More than the Sum of Its Parts. Consistent Scenarios for the Consumption of Heat Energy as a Common Reference Point for Policy and Science, in German], GAIA 21/4, 290–299
Vögele S. (2012): Entwicklung der Rahmenbedingungen für neue Energietechnologien [Development of framework assumptions for new energy technologies, in German}. Research Center Jülich, STE Research Report 4/2012.
Jenssen T., Weimer-Jehle W. (2012): Möglichkeitsräume des zukünftigen Konsums von Wärme [Future heat consumption - a contingency analysis, in German]. In: Gallego Carrera D., Renn O., Wassermann S., Weimer-Jehle W. (Eds.): Nachhaltige Nutzung von Wärmeenergie (Sustainable Heat Consumption). Springer-Vieweg, Heidelberg, Wiesbaden.
Aretz, A., Weimer-Jehle, W. (2004): Cross Impact Methode [Cross-impact method, in German], in: Der Beitrag der deutschen Stromwirtschaft zum europäischen Klimaschutz. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.
Förster, G., Weimer-Jehle, W. (2004): Cross-Impact Methode [Cross-Impact Method, in German]. In: Energiemodelle zum Klimaschutz in liberalisierten Energiemärkten - Die Rolle erneuerbarer Energieträger. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.
Förster G., Weimer-Jehle W. (2003): Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung [Scenarios of a liberalized electricity market, in German]. Technikfolgenabschätzung in Theorie und Praxis, 12:(1). >>
Förster, G. (2002): Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung [Scenarios for a liberalized electricity market, in German]. Center for Technology Assessment, Stuttgart, Germany. >>
Finance
Nik M.M.G., Golarzi G., Nikabadi M.S., Eslam M.F. (2023): Forecasting Factors Affecting Stock Price Fluctuations Using the Scenario Planning Approach. Journal of Applied Research on Industrial Engineering. DOI: 10.22105/jarie.2023.370729.1514. >>
Mousavi Anzahaei S.M., Nikoomaram H. (2022): A comparative study of the performance of stock trading strategies based on LGBM and CatBoost algorithms. International Journal of Finance and Managerial Accounting 7(26). DOI: 10.30495/IJFMA.2022.19525. >>
Haghdoost A., Dehnavieh R., Mehrolhssan M.H., Abolhallaje M., Fazaeli A.A., Ramezanian M. (2022): Future Financing Scenarios for Iran’s Healthcare System. Arch Iran Med. 25, 85-90. DOI: 10.34172/aim.2022.14. >>
Fathi M.R., Maleki M.H., Moghaddam H. (2018): Futures Investment and Financing of Rail Transportation Industry (Machinery and Equipment)(in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Management Futures Research, 29, 33-53. >>
Fathi M.R., Maleki M.H., Rezvani A.V. (2018): Future Study of Investment in the Housing Industry in Iran Using Scenario Planning Approach and Cross-Impact Matrix (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Management Futures Research, 28, 11-28. >>
Rashid A.H., Khazaei S., Moghadam Z.M.V. (2017): Banking Industry's Future ahead with Scenario-based Planning Approach (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 8, 65-89. >>
Health
Karimzadeh M.S., Nasab M.N., Taheri M., Biniyaz S.A. (2024): Identification and Analysis of Factors Influencing the Development of Sports in the Islamic Republic of Iran's Army Using Foresight Methodology (Focusing on Health and Lifestyle). International Journal of Sport Studies for Health 7(3), 1-10. DOI: 10.61838/kman.intjssh.7.3.1. >>
Mehrolhassani M.H., Mozhdehifard M., Rahimisadegh R. (2024): Key factors in the future of oral and dental health in Iran using scenario writing approach. BMC Oral Health, 24:563, DOI: 10.1186/s12903-024-04354-y. >>
Pistolesi M., Frangioni G., Fraboni F., Fabbri E., Masci F. (2024): How will technology change people’s home care in the next 20 years? A strategic foresight study. Ergonomics. DOI: 10.1080/00140139.2024.2334428. >>
See also: del Gaudio M., Fabbri E., Fraboni F., Frangioni G., Masci F., Millo F., Miranda G., Pistolesi M., Randazzo R., Rondi A., Rosa A., Augusto A. (2023): Home Care 2041 - Signals from the Future. In: Bellandi, T., Albolino, S., Bilancini, E. (eds.) Ergonomics and Nudging for Health, Safety and Happiness. SIE 2022. Springer Series in Design and Innovation, vol 28. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-28390-1_3. >>
Hedayati M., Maleki M., Asl I.M., Fazaeli A.A., Goharinezhad S. (2024): Exploring the driving forces and scenario analysis for catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures in Iran. BMC Health Services Research, 24:245. DOI: 10.1186/s12913-024-10551-w. >>
Alizadeh G., Gholipour K., Shishavan M.K., Dehnavieh R., Goharinejad S., Arab-Zozani M., Khosravi M.F., Khodayari-Zarnaq R. (2023): Future of myocardial infarction mortality in Iran - A scenario-based study. Journal of Health Population and Nutrition, 42(19). DOI: 10.1186/s41043-023-00356-8. >>
Emami M., Haghdoost A.A., Yazdi-Feyzabadi V., Mehrolhassani M.H. (2022): Drivers, uncertainties, and future scenarios of the Iranian health system. BMC Health Service Research 22, 1402. DOI: 10.1186/s12913-022-08774-w. >>
Stankov I., Useche A.F., Meisel J.D., Montes F., Morais L. MO., Friche A.AL., Langellier B.A., Hovmand P., Sarmiento O.L., Hammond R.A., Diez Roux A.V. (2021): From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios. Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America. Social Science & Medicine, 114157, DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114157. >>
Rezaee R., Pourmohammadi K., Bordbar N., Ghorbanian A., Kojouri J., Shieh H., Salehi A., Mohammadpour M. (2021): Future Challenges in Medical Education System in COVID-19 Pandemic: Scenario Planning. Research Square. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-827527/v1. >>
Khademi-Jolgehnejad A., Ahmadi-Kahnali R., Heyrani A. (2021): Developing Hospital Resilient Supply Chain Scenario through Cross-Impact Analysis Method (in Persian, abstract in English). Depiction of Health, 12(4), 310-319. DOI: 10.34172/doh.2021.30. >>
Hummel E., Weimer-Jehle W., Hoffmann I. (2021): Cross-Impact Balance Analysis: Basics and application using the example of nutritional behavior (in German). In: Niederberger, Marlen, Finne, Emily (eds.): Forschungsmethoden in der Gesundheitsförderung und Prävention. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-658-31434-7.
Rezaee R., Ghorbanian A., Pourmohammadi K., Kojouri J., Shieh H., Bordbar N., Salehi A. (2019): Future Study of Health Education System on the Path toward Globalization and Entrepreneurship in Iran, 2028 Horizon. Research Square. DOI: 10.21203/rs.2.10253/v1. >>
Hummel E. (2017): The complex phenomenon of nutritional behavior - capturing, depicting, and analyzing with different instruments for tackling complexity [in German]. Dissertation, University of Gießen. >>
Further information (MRI homepage, in German): >>
Deuschle J., Weimer-Jehle W. (2016): Obesity in children and adolescents - Analyzing a health risk [in German]. In: Benighaus L., Renn O., Benighaus C. (eds.): Gesundheitsrisiken im gesellschaftlichen Diskurs [Health risks and social discourse, in German]. Bremen: EHV Academicpress: 66-98.
Hummel E., Hoffmann I. (2016): Complexity of Nutritional Behavior: Capturing and Depicting Its Interrelated Factors in a Cause-Effect Model. Ecology of Food and Nutrition, 55(3), 241-257. DOI: 10.1080/03670244.2015.1129325. >>
Further information (MRI homepage, in German): >>
Weimer-Jehle W., Deuschle J., Rehaag R. (2012): Familial and societal causes of juvenile obesity - a qualitative model on obesity development and prevention in socially disadvantaged children and adolescents. Journal of Public Health, 20(2), 111-124. >>
Information technologies
Zali N., Soltani A., Najafi P. , Ebadi Qajari S., Mehrju M. (2024): Digital Twins for Smarter Iranian Cities - A Future Studies Perspective. Computational Urban Science, 4(43). DOI: 10.1007/s43762-024-00155-9. >>
Parvin B., Shayan A., Poorebrahimi A., Radfar R. (2023): Prediction of Digital Governance in the Direction of Urban Smartness with Sustainability Approach (Case Study: Tehran). Journal of Computer & Robotics, 17(1), 61-74. DOI: 10.22094/JCR.2023.1987987.1304. >>
Marzban E., Rezayan A. (2020): Futures of Iranian Children and Teenagers Engagement in Cyberspace. Journal of Cyberspace Studies, 4(2), 101-128. https://doi.org/10.22059/jcss.2020.299188.1046.
Masior J., Schneider B., Riedel O. (2019): Design of consistent scenarios for IT technologies in system creation based on multiple domain matrices. R&D Management Conference 2019, 17th to 21st June, Paris, France. DOI: 10.24406/publica-fhg-407886. >>
Kowsari M., Montazerghaem M., Mowlaei M.M. (2019): Plausible Future Scenarios of Cyberspace Content in Iran 2025. Socio-Cultural Strategy 7(4), 5-34. >>
Khan A., Pohle J., Lin R., Sandhu P., Oppenheim S., Shin T. (2015): Shared Responsibility - Towards more inclusive internet governance. Global Governance Futures. >>
Abbassi P., Kaul M., Mohan V., Shen Y., Winkelman Z. (2013): Securing the net - Global governance in the digital domain. Global Governance Futures. >>
Innovation
Nühlen J. (2020): Investigating the influence of technological innovations on material flows using the example of vanadium for redox flow batteries [in German]. Dissertation. Ruhr-Universität Bochum. DOI: 10.13154/294-7702. >>
Weimer-Jehle W., Wassermann S., Fuchs G. (2010): Generating Energy- and Innovation-Scenarios using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis - Internationalization of Innovation Strategies for Coal Power Plant Technology [in German]. 11. Symposium Energieinnovation, TU Graz, 10.-12.02.2010. >>
Fuchs G., Fahl U., Pyka A., Staber U. Vögele S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2008): Generating Innovation Scenarios using the Cross-Impact Methodology. Department of Economics, University of Bremen, Discussion-Papers Series No. 007-2008. >>
Weimer-Jehle W., Fuchs G. (2007): Generating innovation scenarios using the cross-impact method [in German], in: Innovation und moderne Energietechnik. Forum für Energiemodelle und energiewirtschaftliche Systemanalyse, eds., LIT-Verlag, Münster, Germany.
Management
Bakhshi Movaheda A., Ghasemi Abyanehb A. (2024): Futureology of collaboration in SAIPA Company’s supply chain. Applied Innovations in Industrial Management, 4(1). >>
Barwasser A., Schuseil F., Werner, A., Jung M., Zimmermann N. (2024): The Digital Product Passport - Scenario-based Recommendations for the Manufacturing Industry. IFAC-PapersOnLine, 58(19). DOI: 10.1016/j.ifacol.2024.09.097. >>
Borjikhani M.A., Masoudi E., Taleb Z., Shahmohammadi N. (2023): A Future Research Study on Data-Oriented Strategic Training - Automotive Industry. Knowledge Processing Studies 3(4). DOI: 10.22034/kps.2023.384555.1099. >>
Demneh M.T., Zackery A., Nouraei A. (2023): Using corporate foresight to enhance strategic management practices. European Journal of Futures Research, 11. DOI: 10.1186/s40309-023-00217-x. >>
Fatidehi M.T., Hoseini S.A., Mirshahvelayati F., Ashrafi A.M., Aval K.J. (2023): The future of the audit profession in Iran with a scenario approach. International Journal of Finance and Managerial Accounting, 8(30), 233:244. DOI: 10.30495/IJFMA.2022.66289.1816. >>
Rittershaus P., Renner M., Aryan V. (2023): A conceptual methodology to screen and adopt circular business models in small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs): A case study on child safety seats as a product service system. Journal of Cleaner Production 390, 136083. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.136083. >>
Shaykhzade F. (2023): Future analysis to define guidelines for Iran's e-commerce - scenario planning. Int. J. Management and Enterprise Development, 22(1), 72-90. DOI: 10.1504/IJMED.2023.128168. >>
Liaoji Z., Huanyu W., Gang L., Yiyan G. (2021): Construction Scenario for a Rural Tourism Value Chain: A Case Study from Rural China. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management 11(1). DOI 10.4236/ajibm.2021.111001. >>
Stich V., Holst L., Jussen P., Schiemann D. (2019): Scenarios for the Development and Use of Data Products Within the Value Chain of the Industrial Food Production. In: Farhad A., Stecke K.E., von Cieminski G., Kiritsis D. (ed.): Advances in Production Management Systems. Towards Smart Production Management Systems, Vol. 567. Cham: Springer International Publishing (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology), p. 294–302. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-29996-5_34. >>
Frank J., Jussen P., Holst L., Meyring T.L. (2018): Scenarios for the Development of Platform-Based Networks for Additive Spare Part Production. In: Moon I., Lee G.M., Park J., Kiritsis D., von Cieminski G. (eds.): Advances in Production Management Systems. Production Management for Data-Driven, Intelligent, Collaborative, and Sustainable Manufacturing. Springer Berlin, Heidelberg, New-York. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-99704-9_26. >>
van Cayzeele S. (2018): Formulation and evaluation of scenario-based business model options [in German]. Series of the Energie-Forschungszentrum Niedersachsen, Vol. 53, Cuvillier Publishers Göttingen. ISBN 978-3-7369-9747-9. See also: van Cayzeele S. (2017): Formulation and evaluation of scenario-based business model options. Dissertation, University of Clausthal.
Aschenbrücker G., Geiger R. (2015): Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis as an early warning tool [in German]. Controller Magazin, May/June 2015 Issue 3, 47-52. >>
Saeidpour S., Behboudi M.R., Ahmadi K.R. (2015): Future Research for Knowledge Management Strategies by Scenario Planning Approach (in Persian, abstact in English). Journal of Strategic Management Studies, 6, 173-202. >>
Vergara Schmallbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Duarte Acosta M. (2013): Aplication del Método Search para el Diseño de Escenarios Futuros en el Consultorio Empresarial de la Universidad de Cartagena (2012-2022) [Application of the method "Search" for Design of Future Scenarios in the Office Business Department at the University of Cartagena (2012-2022), in Spanish]. Prospectiva, Vol. 11(1), 40-49. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15665/rp.v11i1.26 >>
Mobility and transport
Tori S. (2024): Cultivating collaborative futures - Advancing participatory scenario building in transportation. Dissertation, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels. >>
Fadel R., Abu-Eisheh S. (2024): Identification of Strategic Planning Factors to Achieve Smart Mobility for New Cities in Developing Countries Using CIB Method. ASU International Conference in Emerging Technologies for Sustainability and Intelligent Systems (ICETSIS), Manama, Bahrain, 2024, 1963-1967. DOI: 10.1109/ICETSIS61505.2024.10459709. >>
Nematpour M., Oshriyeh O., Ghaffari M. (2024): Behind the invisible walls - Understanding constraints on Muslim solo female travel. Tourism Management Perspectives, 50, 101213. DOI: 10.1016/j.tmp.2023.101213. >>
Louen C., Höing N., Böhnen C., Kuhnimhof (2023): Scenario planning as an approach to structure the development of transport planning alternatives. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 14, 101089. DOI: 10.1016/j.cstp.2023.101089. >>. See also: Louen C., Burla P., Höing N., Böhnen C. (2022): Scenarios for network configurations and organization of an automated public transport system using the example of the city of Aachen [in German]. Final report of the NAIXTransit project. RWTH Aachen University. >>
Tori S., te Boveldt G., Keseru I. (2023): Building scenarios for urban mobility in 2030. The combination of cross-impact balance analysis with participatory stakeholder workshops. Futures, 150, 103160. DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2023.103160. >>. See also: Tori S., Pavlovic M., te Boveldt G., Keseru I. (2023): Explorative scenarios of future urban mobility in Brussels. Report on WP2 of the project "Mobilise". Vrije Universiteit Brussel. >>
Tori S., te Boveldt G., Keseru I. (2023): Building scenarios for urban mobility in 2030. The combination of cross-impact balance analysis with participatory stakeholder workshops. Futures, 150, 103160. DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2023.103160. >>. See also: Tori S., te Boveldt G., Keseru I., Macharis C. (2021): City-specific future urban mobility scenarios - Determining the impacts of emerging urban mobility environments. Horizon 2020-Projekt "Sprout" Delivery 3.1. >>
Ehrenberger S., Seum S., Pregger T., Simon S., Knitschky G., Kugler U. (2021): Land transport development in three integrated scenarios for Germany – Technology options, energy demand and emissions. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 90, S. 102669. DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102669. >>
See also: Seum S., Bieser J., Ehrenberger S., Kugler U. (2018): German and European Ground-Transport Emissions in three different scenarios until 2040. Transport Research Arena, TRA 2018, 16.-19. April 2018, Wien. >>
See also: Winkler C., Seum S. (2018): Mobility scenarios 2040: Transport growth and greenhouse gas mitigation - How does that fit in? [in German] 26. Verkehrswissenschaftliche Tage, March 14-15, 2018, Dresden. >>
See also: Seum S., Henning A., Plohr M., Özdemir E. D., Hepting M., Keimel H., Sanok S., Sausen R., Pregger T., Heinrichs M., Müller S., Winkler C., Neumann T., Seebach O., Matthias V., Vogel B. (2016): The DLR Transport and the Environment Project – Building competency for a sustainable mobility future. DLR-Report 2015-38, 2016, p. 192-198. >>
Soteropoulos A, Pfaffenbichler P., Berger M., Emberger G., Stickler A., Dangschat J.S. (2021): Scenarios of Automated Mobility in Austria: Implications for Future Transport Policy. Future Transportation, 1, 747–764. DOI: 10.3390/ futuretransp1030041. >>.
See also: Soteropoulos A., Stickler A., Sodl V., Berger M., Dangschat J., Pfaffenbichler P., Emberger G., Frankus E., Braun R., Schneider F., Kaiser S., Wakolbinger H., Mayerthaler A. (2019): System scenarios of automated driving in personal mobility [in German]. SAFiP project report. Austrian Federal Ministry for Mobility, Innovation, and Technology, Vienna (Ed.). >>
Matthias V., Bieser J., Mocanu T., Pregger T., Quante M., Ramacher M.O.P., Seum S., Winkler C. (2020): Modelling road transport emissions in Germany – Current day situation and scenarios for 2040. Transportation Research Part D. DOI 10.1016/j.trd.2020.102536. >>
Haefeli U., Studer S., Oechslin L., Artho J. (2020): Transport of the future. Demographic ageing and its implications for the transport system (in German). Bundesamt für Straßen, Bern (Switzerland). DOI: 10.5167/uzh-192823. >>
Artho J., Haefeli U. (2018): Mobility needs and behavior of future older persons in public transport: Challenges, opportunities and potentials [in German]. University of Zürich, Sozialforschungsstelle. >>
Schuh G., Schwartz M., Kolz D., Jussen P., Meyring T.L. (2018): Scenarios for the Development of Electromobility. Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Informatics, Environment, Energy and Applications, March 2018, 174–178. doi.org/10.1145/3208854.3208866. >>
Ruesch M., Bohne S., Schmid T., Hegl P. Haefeli U., Arnold T., Fumasoli T. (2018): A 2050 Vision for Energy-efficient and CO2-free Urban Logistics. In: Taniguchi E., Thompson R.G. (2018): City Logistics 1. Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, 147-167. doi.org/10.1002/9781119425519.ch8.
See also: Ruesch M., Bohne S., Schmid T., Hegl P. Haefeli U., Arnold T., Fumasoli T. (2018): A 2050 Vision for Energy-efficient and CO2-free Urban Logistics. Proceedings of 7th Transport Research Arena TRA 2018, April 16-19, 2018, Vienna, Austria. >>
See also: Haefeli U., Arnold T., Matti D. (2016): Scenarios 2050 - The Method and the Stories behind [in German]. Project report, Rapp-Trans AG, Interface GmbH, Institute for Transport Planning and Systems. >>
Kurniawan J.H. (2018): Discovering Alternative Scenarios for Sustainable Urban Transportation. 48th Annual Conference of the Urban Affairs Association, 4–7 April 2018, Toronto, Canada. >>
Ruiz Lorbacher M., Le Q.S., Lüke M., Thamm H.-P., Valek V., Dinter M., Christ I., Krämer A., Sohr A., Sauerländer-Biebl A., Brockfeld E., Pleines C. (2016): Real Time Monitoring of Urban Transport - Solutions for Traffic Management and Urban Development in Hanoi [in German]. Final Report of the REMON project. Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Berlin.
Knupfer M., Sprake D., Vagapov Y., Anuchin A. (2016): Cross-impact analysis of Vehicle-to-Grid technologies in the context of 2030. IX International Conference on Power Drives Systems (ICPDS), Perm (Russia). DOI: 10.1109/ICPDS.2016.7756682. >>
Politics
Emami Qara-Tapeh E., Amiri B., Asemani Z. (2024): Future Research of Science, Technology, and Innovation Policymaking for Laboratories in Iran. International Journal of Information Science and Management, 22(4). DOI: 10.22034/ijism.2024.2013592.1276. >>
Janparvour M., Zoghi Barani K., Hussein I., Bahrami Jaf S., Tak Roosta M. (2023): Future Research on Geo-Economic Relations between Iran and Africa. Geopolitics Quarterly 19(70), 108-132. >>
Nawir D., Bakri M.D., Syarif I.A. (2023): Central government role in road infrastructure development and economic growth in the form of future study. The case of Indonesia. City Territory and Architecture, 10(12). DOI: 10.1186/s40410-022-00188-9. >>
Ghalenoei M., Chapari L., Hojabrnia Z., Alam Z. (2023): Scenario Planning of the Future of Strategic Agility in the Ministry of Sports and Youth of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Journal of New Studies in Sport Management, 4(1),727 -739. DOI: 10.22103/jnssm.2022.20138.1123. >>
Contro C. (2020): Towards a more effective EU diplomacy. A comparative analysis of the EU soft power in Ukraine and Belarus. Institute of European Democrats, Brussels. >>
Ayandeban (2018): Iran Future Research Report 1397. [in Persian]. Ayandeban Futures Studies. >>
Gupte R. (2018): China Threat Perception and Strategic Options. FINS Journal of Diplomacy & Strategy, May 2018. >>
Chuvychkina I. (2017): Perspectives of the EU-Russia Energy Dialog - a scientific scenario analysis (in German). Dissertation. University of Bremen. >>
Ayandeban (2016): Future Scenarios Facing Iran in the Coming Year 1395 (March 2016 - March 2017) [in Persian, summary in English]. Ayandeban Iran Futures Studies. >>
Conference paper in English: Mahdi Mowlaei M., Talebian H., Talebian S., Gharari F., Mowlaei Z., Hassanpour H. (2016): Scenario Building for Iran Short-Time Future - Results of Iran Futures Studies Project. Finding Futures in Uncertainties. 6th International Postgraduate Conference, Departement of Applied Social Sciences, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, September 22-24, 2016. >>
Balthasar D., Bowen H., Brandi C., Hamm K., Haring-Smith W., Turner G., Wang Y., Xu J. (2013): Envisioning New Partnerships For Africa’s Future: Making Global Governance Work in a Post-2015 World. Global Governance Futures. >>
Risk and security
Asgari A., Arbabi Sabzevari A. (2024): Foresight of Informal Settlements to Increase Resilience against Earthquake. Journal of Rescue and Relief 16(3). >>
Hoseinpour M., Mousavi M., Ghalehteimouri, K.J. (2024): Enhancing urban and regional development for border security in Iran - A futures study of West Azerbaijan province. Town and Regional Planning 84, 15-28. DOI: 10.38140/trp.v84i.7823. >>
Abdolmaleki M., Rahimi M. (2024): Using the identifying and analyzing effective defence factors in the vulnerability of Andisheh planned new town and developing a scenario to deal with natural and human threats. International Journal of Nonlinear Analysis and Applications. DOI: 10.22075/ijnaa.2023.31574.4671. >>
Heydari A., Shokravi F., Safaralizadeh E., Hoseinzadeh R., Gholami Sefidkouhi M.A., Heydari Tashe Kaboud S. (2023): Strategic Scenarios for Enhancing Urban Environmental Resilience in the Cities of Kurdistan Province (Iran). Interdisciplinary Studies in Society, Law, and Politics 2(3). >>
Sumantri S.H. (2023): The Projected Role of Government in Developing Public Policy to Strengthen the Liquefaction Disaster Resilience System: A Case of Indonesia. Croatian International Relations Review 29(92), 171-195. DOI: 10.2478/CIRR-2023-0011. >>
Nekooie M.A., Attari M., Ghaffariankolahi A., Rajai Y. (2022): Risk assessment framework for the supply of water during a crisis. Water Management. DOI: 10.1680/jwama.21.00072. >>
Khezri S., Dehrashid A.A., Bijani M., Valizadeh N., Nasrollahizadeh B., Izadi F., Dehrashid H.A., Azadi H., Scheffran J. (2021): Resilience of human settlements against landslide risk: The case of Kurdistan Province, Iran. Land Degradation & Development 32(18), 5360-5377, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.4114. >>
Schneider M., Lichte D., Witte D., Gimpel S., Brucherseifer, E. (2021): Scenario Analysis of Threats Posed to Critical Infrastructures by Civilian Drones. Proceedings of the 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference. Research Publishing, Singapore. DOI: 10.3850/978-981-18-2016-8 234-cd. >>
Karimi A., Sadeghi A. (2020): Challenges of the electronic wars with the advent of quantum technology with emphasis on quantum radars and data security (in Persian, abstract in English). Iranian Journal of Marine Science and Technology, 24(95), 11-27. >>
Asano T., El-Sayed A., Kaul K., Körner K., Liu W., Malik S., Nozoe M. (2015): The Future of Weaponized Unmanned Systems - Challenges and Opportunities. Global Governance Futures. >>
Kaukonen E. (2014): Pelastustoimen skenaariopäivitys [Rescue service scenarios, in Finnish]. Pelastusopisto - Tutkimusraportit 3/2014 [Reports of the Emergency Services College], Kuopio, Finnland. >>
Aschenbrücker, A., Löscher, M., Troppens, S. (2013), Scenario-based supply chain risk management to avoid drug shortages caused by external threats in the pharmaceutical supply chain, 20thEurOMA Conference, Dublin June 7-12, 2013. >>. See also: Aschenbrücker, A., Löscher, M. (2013): Scenario-based identification of external threats to the pharmaceutical supply chain [in German]. IPRI-Praxis No. 2, Stuttgart. >> . See also: Seiter M., Aschenbrücker A. (2014): SafeMed - System design for the economic safeguarding of drug supply - Identification of threat scenarios and their system design safeguarding and economic evaluation [in German]. Final report of the SafeMed project. >> .
Society
Shamiri M., Amirnejad G., Jaber Ansari M.R., Derakhshan R. (2023): Designing Development Policies for the Social Security Retirement System with a Future Study Approach. International Journal of Innovation Management and Organizational Behavior 3(3). DOI: 10.61838/kman.ijimob.3.3.17. >>
de Wildt T.E., Schweizer V.J. (2022): Exploring value change. Prometheus 38(1). DOI: 10.13169/prometheus.38.1.0025. >>
Kearney N. (2021): Guided Cultural Evolution and Sustainable Development: Proof of Concept and Exploratory Results. Dissertation, University of Waterloo, Canada. >>
Hirschnitz-Garbers M., Sosa A.A., Zwiers J., Hackfort S., Schipperges M. (2020): Method triangulation to identify and evaluate societal trends and resource policy measures [in German]. UBA-Texte 160/2020, Umweltbundesamt Dessau-Roßlau. >>
Weimer-Jehle W., Wassermann S., Kosow H. (2011): Konsistente Rahmendaten für Modellierungen und Szenariobildung im Umweltbundesamt [Consistent framework assumptions informing model- and scenario-analysis at the German Federal Environment Agency, in German]. Expert's Report for the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA), UBA-Texte 20/2011, Dessau-Roßlau. >>
Cabrera Méndez A.A., Puig López G., Valdez Alejandre F.J. (2010): Análisis al plan national de desarrollo - una visión prospectiva [Analysis of the national development plan: a prospective vision, in Spanish]. XV Congreso international de contaduría, administratión e informática, México. >>
Sustainability and resources
Daus D., Ashraf S.R.B. (2024): Scenarios for Sustainable Citrus Supply Chains in the Mediterranean. In: Melkonyan-Gottschalk A., Daus D. (eds.), Transformation Towards Circular Food Systems. Greening of Industry Networks Studies, vol 13. Springer, Cham. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-63793-3_12. >>
Carlsen H., Weitz N., Petrova K., Kemp-Benedict E. (2024): A sustainable trajectory for the 2030 Agenda. Targeting historical lock-ins to accelerate progress on all SDGs. Sustainable Development. DOI: 10.1002/sd.2929. >>
Nikkhah H.A., Kahanali R.A., Sharyari M. (2023): A futurology of the sustainable development process of Hormozgan Province, Iran. Futures, 154, 103248. DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2023.103248. >>
Oviedo Toral L.P. (2023): Scenario-based sustainability assessment of a solar energy transition in Mixteca-Puebla, Mexico. Dissertation, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000161274. >>
Zarekar A., Salehi E., Nohegar A., Ashrafi K. (2023): Prioritizing Urban Sustainability Practices Through Comprehensive Quality Assessment and Scenario Planning. Int J Environ Res 17. DOI: 10.1007/s41742-023-00529-7. >>
Saberifar R., Mishra P.K. (2020): Investigating factors affecting Sustainable Development and formulating Sustainability-Related Scenarios in Mashhad Metropolis, Iran. GEA Geo Eco-Eco Agro International Conference, 28.-29. May 2020, Montenegro. >>
Tudor M., Nichersu I., Hanganu J. et al. (2019): Restoration and Forecast of peat formation in swamps - connecting the physiological diversity of plants with the biological and biogeochemical processes of the soil (in Romanian, summary in English). Report. Project REPEAT, Danube Delta National Institute. >>
Gößling-Reisemann S., Zimmermann T., Isenmann R. (2017): Investigating Resource Saving Potentials in the German Non-ferrous Metals Industry through the Delphi Foresight Method. Erzmetall 70(6), 349-354. >>. See also: Zimmermann T., Gößling-Reisemann S., Isenmann R. (2018): DelphiNE - Uncovering potentials to conserve resources in the non-ferrous metals industry using a Delphi-survey (in German, abstract in English). Report 116/2018 to the German Environment Agency (UBA), Dessau. >>
Bodo B., Bakker E., Lopes L., Miklovicz T., Martins M.K. (2017): Report on cross‐cutting synergies, emerging scenarios and their potential impact on international cooperation on raw materials. Horizon 2020-Project INTRAW Delivery 2.7. >>. See also: Schimpf S., Sturm F., Correa V., Bodo B., Keane C. (2017): The world of raw materials 2050 - Scoping future dynamics in raw materials through scenarios. Energy Procedia 125, 6–13. DOI: 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.08.038. See also: The world of raw materials 2050. Future Scenarios for the World of Raw Materials in 2050. INTRAW Scenario Flyer. >>.
Musch A.-K., von Streit A. (2017): Scenarios, future demands, and visions - Results of a participative scenario construction in the model region of Oberland [in German]. INOLA Report no. 7, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich. >>
Saner D., Beretta C., Jäggi B., Juraske R., Stoessel F., Hellweg S. (2016): FoodPrints of households. Int J Life Cycle Assess 21, 654–663, DOI 10.1007/s11367-015-0924-5. The scenario construction is described in the Supplementary Material (p. 45). >>
Nichersu I., Nichersu I., Mierla M. (2015): Scientific foundations of measures for climat change adaption through adaptive ecosystem management (in Romanian, abstract in English). Buletinul AGIR nr. 4/2015. >>. See also: Pegaso (2014): The Black Sea Basin and ICZM. Pegaso project delivery 5.1. >>. See also: Nichersu I., Mierla M., Marin E., Trifanov C. (2013): Implementing local policies for case study sulina. Proceedings of the 10th Global Congress on ICM: Lessons Learned to Address New Challenges, EMECS 2013 - MEDCOAST 2013 Joint Conference. Vol. 1, p. 47-58. October 30 - November 3, 2013, Marmaris, Turkey.
Kemp-Benedict E., de Jong W., Pacheco P. (2014): Forest futures: Linking global paths to local conditions. In Katila P., Galloway G., de Jong W., Pacheco P., Mery G. (eds.): Forest under pressure - Local responses to global issues. Part IV - Possible future pathways. IUFRO World Series Vol. 32. >>
Renn O., Deuschle J., Jäger A., Weimer-Jehle W. (2009): A normative-functional concept of sustainability and its indicators. International Journal of Global Environmental Issues, 9:4, 291-317.
Renn O., Deuschle J., Jäger A., Weimer-Jehle W. (2007): Model Sustainability - A normative-functional concept and its implementation (in German). VS-Verlag, Wiesbaden, Germany. >>
Technology management
Shokri A., Rezaeian A., Keramati M.A. (2024): Futurology of Artificial Intelligence Governance in a Smart Government for Achieving a Sustainable and Efficient Structure for Utilizing Advanced Technologies. Management Strategies and Engineering Sciences 6(2). >>
Lee H., Geum Y. (2017): Development of the scenario-based technology roadmap considering layer heterogeneity: An approach using CIA and AHP. Technology Forecasting & Social Change 117, 12-24. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.016. >>
Urban/regional planning/architecture
Nia S.F. (2024): Analysis of good urban governance indicators and its impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of local management with a futures studies approach. TMP Universal Journal of Research and Review Archives, 3(4). DOI: 10.69557/ujrra.v3i4.118. >>
van Laar B., Greco A., Remøy H., Gruis V., M.B. Hamida (2024): Towards desirable futures for the circular adaptive reuse of buildings - A participatory approach. SSRN. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4985123. >>
Hashemkhani Zolfani S., Hedayatnezhad Kashi S.M., Antuchevičienė J. (2024): Livability and futures studies of worn-out urban textures - Scenario analysis for evaluating the livability system and achieving sustainability. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 28(2), 101–115. DOI: 10.3846/ijspm.2024.21341. >>
Anabestani A., Zolfaghari M., Tavakolinia J. (2023): Development of Impactful Scenarios for Smart Village Approaches on the Sustainability of Peri-Urban Settlements of the Metropolis of Tehran (Case Study: Villages of Islamshahr County). Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 12(4), 99-124. DOI: 10.22067/jrrp.v12i4.2312-1097. >> .
Rahimipour Sheikhani Nejad M.A., Mahmoodi Chenari H., Nasiri Jan Agha F., Momeni Taromsari F., Emami S.F., Jensi Z. (2023): Land Use Planning to Determine the Optimal Spaces for Developing Sustainable Rural Employment in East Guilan. Journal of Sustainable Rural Development, 7(1), 31-44. DOI: 10.22034/jsrd.2023.177412. >> .
Hasanpour M. (2023): Smart City Planning Future Studies. International Journal of Digital Content Management, 4(6). DOI: 10.22054/dcm.2022.62808.1092. >> .
Sadegihn M., Kamran K.V., Hejazi S.A. (2022): Land use change forest scenarios on the Horizon 2025. 4th Intercontinental Geoinformation Days (IGD), June 20-21, 2022, Tabriz, Iran. >> .
Janparvar M., Ghalehteimouri K.J., Mazandrani D., Mousavi M. (2022): Investigating impact of weaknesses and strengtheners local and national factors in border cities' development: Case of study Javanrood city, Iran. Research square. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2344069/v1. >>
Mirzaei M., Baghaiepoor M. (2022): Walkability in Digital Era: A Futures Study in Tehran. Research Square. DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1969759/v1. >>
Kosow H., Wassermann S., Bartke S., Goede P., Grimski D., Imbert I., Jenssen T., Laukel O., Proske M., Protzer J., Schumacher K.P., Siedentop S., Wagner-Endres S., Wittekind J., Zimmermann K. (2022): Addressing Goal Conflicts - New Policy Mixes for Commercial Land Use Management. Land 11, 795. DOI: 10.3390/land11060795. >>
Amini M., Shokohi M.A., Khakpour B.A. (2022): The Status of Qaen City in Regional Development of North of Southern Khorasan Based on Future Studies Approach - Scenario Planning. International Journal of Mechanical Engineering 7(4), 1222-1233. >>
Jenssen T. (2021): Part or whole picture of the city region? Sustainability indicators in the systemic view (in German). In: Alexander Gemeinhardt (ed.): Wege transformativer Forschung: Zielorientierung und Indikatoren. tF-Symposium, October 7, 2020. Schader Foundation, Darmstadt (Germany), ISBN: 978-3-932736-54-4, p. 37–45. >>
Abafat S., Hafez Rezazadeh M., Karimian Bostani M. (2021): The Foresight of Infrastructural Development of the City of Ardabil with the Integrating Approach of Scenario Planning and the Analytical Models of SOWT and QSPM. GEINTEC 11(3). >>
Jenssen T. (2020): The future of land use - Land use of the future. Foresight and strategy development: the case of Stuttgart Region (in German). Zeitschrift für Umweltpolitik und Umweltrecht (ZfU), 3/2020, 326-46. >>
Jenssen T. (2020): From indicator values to systems – Prospective sustainability indicators for land use (in German). In: Meinel G., Schumacher U., Behnisch M., Krüger T. (eds.): Flächennutzungsmonitoring XII. IÖR-Schriften no. 78, Rhombos Publishers, Berlin. ISBN: 978-3-944101-78-1.
Jenssen T. (2020): Is Green Infrastructure a Game Changer for Sustainable Regional Development? A Scenario Approach for Stuttgart Region. Proceedings of the REAL CORP 2020 conference "Shaping Urban Change". 15.-18. September 2020, Aachen (Germany). >>
Varsi H., Ghasemy M.R. (2020): Regional development planning based on methods of analysis cross-impact and CIB (Case study: Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Province)(in Persian, abstract in English). Human Geography Research Quaterly, 52(2), 657-674. DOI 10.22059/jhgr.2019.229931.1007430. >>
Abdolreza A., Darvishi H., Rahmani B., Sarrafi M. (2019): Analysis of Factors Affecting the designing spatial development scenarios based on rural areas (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Spatial Planning, Tarbiat Modares University, 23(3), 125-146. >>
Amin-Tahmasbit H., Saraf Jadidin A.R. (2019): A Scenario Planning of Urban Planning in the Municipality. International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology 8(6), 1526-34. DOI: 10.17577/IJERTV8IS060487. >>
Noorian F., Khalesi H.B. (2019): Spatial realization of Fars province vision based on the causality of uncertainties (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Urban Studies, 8(32), 105-116. >>
Taghilou A. (2018): Land Use Change Scenarios for Rural Areas. Case study Bash Qaleh Dehestan – Urmia County. Journal of Research and Rural Planning, 7(3), 29-44. DOI: 10.22067/jrrp.v7i3.67080. >>
Mousavi M.N. (2018): Scenario Development Affecting Islamic-Iranian Progress with Regional Plannung Approach (Case Study: Western Azerbaijan)(in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Regional Plannung, 7, 51-64. >>
Taleshi M., Afrakhteh H., Nejad M.A. (2017): Analysis of the Factors Affecting Changes in Land Cover Patterns in Rural Districts in East of Guilan Province (Iran) for Foresight. Review of Environment and Earth Sciences 4, 51-65, DOI: 10.18488/journal.80.2017.42.51.65. >>
Nedae T.S. (2017): Application of Strategic Foresight Methodology in Strategic Spatial Development Planning. Case Study: Karaj Urban Region Scenario Writing (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Architecture and Urban Planning, 10, 23-48. >>
Heydari A., Rahnama M.R., Ajza S.M., Kharazmi (2016): Analysis of the Spatial Changes of Urban Environment in the Mashhad Metropolis Using the Natural Step Future Study Approach (in Persian, abstract in English). Geography and Environmental Sustainability, 6, 1-19. >>
Vergara-Schmalbach J.C., Fontalvo Herrera T., Morelos Gómez J. (2014): La planeación por escenarios aplicada sobre políticas urbanas: El caso del mercado central de Cartagena (Columbia) [Planning through scenarios implemented for urban policy: Central market case in Cartagena (Columbia), in Spanish]. Rev. fac. cienc. econ. Vol XXII(1), Enero-Junio 2014, 23-33. >>
Zali N. (2012): Strategic foresight and regional policy with emphasis on scenario planning approach (in Persian, abstract in English). Strategic Studies Quaterly (Research Institute of Strategic Studies, Teheran), 14(54), 33-54. >>. Siehe auch: Zali N. (2010): Regional development foresight with emphasis on scenario planning approach. Case study: East Azerbaijan Province (in Persian, abstract in English). Dissertation, University of Tabriz. >>.
Waste
Meylan G., Seidl R., Spoerri A. (2013): Transitions of municipal solid waste management. Part I: Scenarios of Swiss waste glass-packaging disposal. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 74, 8-19. >>
Meylan G. (2013): Integrating Stakeholder Perspectives into Policy Support of Municipal Solid Waste Management. Dissertation, ETH Zürich. >>
Saner D., Blumer Y.B., Lang D.J., Koehler A. (2011): Scenarios for the implementation of EU waste legislation at national level and their consequences for emissions from municipal waste incineration. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 57, 67–77. >>
Water
Kosow H., Brauner S., Brumme A., Hauser W., Hölzlberger F., Moschner J., Rübbelke D., Vögele S., Weimer-Jehle W. (2024): Uncharted water conflicts ahead - Mapping the scenario space for Germany in the year 2050. Front. Water, Sec. Water and Human Systems 6. DOI: 10.3389/frwa.2024.1492336. >>
Radaei M., Salehi E., Moghaddam H., Dehkordi F.A., Radaei M. (2023): Look at the past, vision for the future with the groundwater sustainability approach in desert regions. Environmental Engineering Research 29(3). DOI: 10.4491/eer.2023.267. >>
Kosow H., Brauner S., Hölzlberger F., Moschner J., Vögele S., Weimer-Jehle W., Brumme A., Rübbelke D. (2023): Future water conflicts in Germany: Serious gaming for policy design under future uncertainty. International conference on public policy (ICPP 6), Toronto, June 26-29, 2023. >>
Lazurko A., Schweizer V., Armitage D. (2023): Exploring “big picture” scenarios for resilience in social–ecological systems - transdisciplinary cross‑impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin. Sustainability Science. DOI: 10.1007/s11625-023-01308-1. >>
Motschmann A., Teutsch C., Huggel C., Seidel J., León C.D., Muñoz R., Sienel J., Drenkhan F. (2022): Current and future water balance for coupled human-natural systems – Insights from a glacierized catchment in Peru. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 41, 101063. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101063. >>
Kosow H., Weimer-Jehle W., León C.D., Minn F. (2022): Designing synergetic and sustainable policy mixes - a methodology to address conflictive environmental issues. Environmental Science & Policy 130, S. 36–46. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.01.007. >>
León C. D., Brauer F., Hügler M., Keller S., Kosow H., Krauss M., Wasielewski S., Wienhöfer J. (Eds.) (2021): Integrated Water Management Solutions in the Lurín Catchment, Lima, Peru – Supporting United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 6. Final report of the joint project TRUST. University of Stuttgart, ISBN 978-3-00-068498-2. DOI: 10.18419/opus-11390. >>
Sharma A., Schweizer V., Hipel K.W. (2020): Analyzing Cauvery River Dispute Using A System of Systems approach. 2020 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (SMC), 2020 October 11-14, Toronto, Canada. >>
León C., Kosow H. (2019): Water scarcity in megacities - the example of Lima [in German]. In: Lozán J.L., Breckle S.-W., Kuttler W., Matzarakis A. (eds.). Warnsignal Klima: Die Städte. 191-196. University of Hamburg. >>
Ghoochani O.M., Dabiri D., Ghanian M. (2019): Major Driver Forces of Water Resources’ Management in the Iranian Agricultural Sector (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Public Policy (University of Teheran) 5(2), 59-78. DOI 10.22059/ppolicy.2019.72272. >>
Schütze M., Seidel J., Chamorro A., León C. (2018): Integrated modelling of a megacity water system – The application of a transdisciplinary approach to the Lima metropolitan area. Journal of Hydrology 573, 983-993. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.03.045. >>
Jalalian H., Azipour F., Mehdizadeh H., Alibeygi J. (2018): Foresight on the Effects of Implementation of Water Transfer from the Sirvan River (the Arid Areas Project) on the Lacation-Spatial Changes in Mehran County (Iran) (in Persian, abstract in English). Journal of Management Futures Research, 29, 1-18. >>
Slawson D. (2015): A qualitative cross-impact balance analysis of the hydrological impacts of land use change on channel morphology and the provision of stream channel services. Proceedings of the International Conference on River and Stream Restoration - Novel Approaches to Assess and Rehabilitate Modified Rivers. June 30 - July 2, 2015, Wageningen, The Netherlands, p. 350-354. >>
Assimacopoulos D., Kampragou E., Andreu J., Bifulco C., de Carli A., De Stefano L., Dias S. Gudmundsson L., Haro-Monteagudo D., Musolino D., Paredes-Arquiola J., Rego F., Seidl I., Solera A., Urquijo J., van Lanen H., Wolters W. (2014): Future drought impact and vulnerability - case study scale. EU project DROUGHT - R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing). Technical report no. 20, p. 17-22. >>
Miranda Sara L., Baud I. (2014): Knowledge-building in adaption management: concertacion processes in transforming Lima water and climate change governance. Environment & Urbanization, Vol. 26(2):505-524. DOI 10.1177/0956247814539231 >>
Uraiwong P. (2013): Failure analysis of malfunction water resources project in the Northeastern Thailand - Integrated mental models and project life cycle approach. Kochi University of Technology, Japan. >>
Kosow H., León C., Schütze M. (2013): Escenarios para el futuro - Lima y Callao 2040. Escenarios CIB, storylines & simulacin LiWatool [Scenarios for the future of Lima and Callao 2040. CIB scenarios, storylines and LiWatool simulations, in Spanish]. Scenario brochure of the Liwa project (www.lima-water.de). >>
Baltodano Fuentes A. (2012): Insumos para la definición de estrategias de gestión del recurso hídrico en zonas vulnerables a cambio climático: Percepciones y escenarios de iso del agua en Guanacaste, Costa Rica [Inputs for strategy design on water resource management in vulnerable areas to climate change: Perceptions and scenarios on water use in Guanacaste, Costa Rica]. Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación Y Enseñanza (CATIE), Turrialba, Costa Rica. >>
John S. (2009): Bewertungen der Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die Abwasserbetriebe Bautzen mit Hilfe der Szenarioanalyse [Using Scenario Analysis for Assessing the Impacts of Demographic Change on the Wastewater Management Authorities in Bautzen, in German]. Dresdner Beiträge zur Lehre der betrieblichen Umweltökonomie 34/09, Universität Dresden. >>
Working world
Käfer A., Müller C., Rief S. (2022): Beyond Multispace. Scenarios on changing requirements for office space and real estate in urban environments until 2030 [in German]. Fraunhofer-Institut IAO. Report as part of the Office 21 Future of Work innovation network. >>
Ahl L.-M. (2021): The Virtue of Psychological Empowerment. How Organizational Culture Drives Behavioral Determinants of Workforce Agility in Uncertain Environments. Dissertation. Universidad Cathólica de Murcia. >>
Centre for Workforce Intelligence (2014): Scenario generation - Enhancing scenario generation and quantification. CfWI technical paper series no. 7. >>
Cabrera Méndez A.A., Puig López G. (2012): Análisis prospectivo de las expectativas de Calidad de Vida en el Trabajo [Prospective analysis of expectations about the quality of life at work, in Spanish]. 3er Congreso Internacional de Contaduria, Administración e Informática Administrativa. Filosofía de la Organización. Morelia, Michoacán Mexico, 29 y 30 de Noviembre 2012. >>