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  Step I: Descriptors
 
  Step II: Variants
 
  Step III: Cross-Impact-Matrix 
 
  Step IV: Evaluation


CIB Analysis - Step-by-Step

Step II: Specifying the Variants

To reflect the descriptors' future uncertainties, each descriptor is assigned a small number of alternative future developments. These alternative futures are referred to as 'variants' of the descriptor, or as its states. The number of variants per descriptor can vary from descriptor to descriptor. In the example, a literature review or expert elicitation may have led to the choice of the following variants.

  A. Government:
    A1 'Patriots party'
    A2 'Prosperity party'
    A3 'Social party'
  B. Foreign policy:
    B1 Cooperation
    B2 Rivalry
    B3 Conflict
  C. Economy:
    C1 Shrinking
    C2 Stagnant
    C3 Dynamic
  D. Distribution of wealth:
    D1 Balanced
    D2 Strong contrasts
  E. Social cohesion:
    E1 Social peace
    E2 Tensions
    E3 Unrest
  F. Social values:
    F1 Meritocratic
    F2 Solidarity
    F3 Family

A scenario consists of the selection of one variant for each descriptor. Thus, 3 · 3 · 3 · 2 · 3 · 3 = 486 different scenarios can be formed from the various descriptors of Somewhereland, although not all these scenarios make sense due to the interdependencies between the descriptors. Therefore, in the next step, information on the interdependencies must be collected.



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